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الاحتمالات هي أساس صناعة الرهان، وهي مصممة لحساب أرباحك المحتملة من الرهان. يمكن أن تساعدك الحسابات وراء الاحتمالات في تحديد ما إذا كان الرهان يستحق المتابعة أم لا، كما تساعدك من خلال إجراء تحليل للمخاطر حيث يمكنك حساب أرباحك المحتملة والأموال المستثمرة.
الشيء الأكثر أهمية الذي يجب فهمه فيما يتعلق باحتمالات الرهان هو الأنواع الثلاثة المميزة التي يمكنك العثور عليها في مكاتب المراهنات عبر الإنترنت.
الصعاب الكسرية
الاحتمالات العشرية
احتمالات (Moneyline) الأمريكية
يظل مفهوم الاحتمالات كما هو لأنه موجود هنا لمساعدتك في حساب أرباحك المحتملة من الرهان. ومع ذلك، يتم عرض الأنواع المختلفة بتنسيقات مختلفة تُستخدم لعرض احتمالات حدوث أشياء معينة في حدث رياضي بطريقة أو بأخرى.
كيف يتم حساب احتمالات الرهان؟
كيف يتم حساب احتمالات الرهان؟
هل تعرض الاحتمالات الاحتمالية في حدث ما؟
يقوم وكلاء المراهنات بإجراء تحليل متعمق قبل كل حدث رياضي فقط لحساب احتمالية حدوث أشياء معينة في الحدث. الاحتمالات لا تمثل دائمًا تمثيلًا دقيقًا للاحتمال في حدث رياضي.
على الرغم من أن وكلاء المراهنات يستخدمون خوارزميات معقدة لحساب الفرص، إلا أن تنسيق الاحتمالات لا يعكس دائمًا احتمالية وقوع حدث ما.
ومع ذلك، لا تزال الاحتمالات تخبرك بشيء عن هذا الحدث.
عادة:
تشير الاحتمالات المنخفضة إلى احتمال حدوث شيء ما
تشير الاحتمالات الأعلى إلى حدوث شيء غير مرجح
تشير الاحتمالات إلى دفع تعويضات الرهان الفائز
الغرض الأساسي من الاحتمالات هو مساعدة الأشخاص على حساب أرباحهم المحتملة من الرهان. تعتبر عملية حساب العوائد الخاصة بك بسيطة إلى حد ما، طالما أنك على دراية بالتنسيق الفردي.
عادة:
تعني الاحتمالات الأقل أنه سيكون هناك فوز محتمل أقل
تعني الاحتمالات الأعلى أنه سيكون هناك فوز محتمل أعلى
لماذا تتغير الاحتمالات؟
إذا كنت معتادًا على المراهنات الرياضية، فمن المحتمل أنك تعلم بالفعل أن وكلاء المراهنات يمكنهم تغيير احتمالاتهم قبل الحدث. ترتبط الاحتمالات بشكل مباشر باحتمالية حدوث أشياء معينة في حدث رياضي. هذا يعني أنه إذا تغير شيء ما قبل المباراة، مثل فقدان لاعب بسبب الإصابة، فمن المحتمل أن تتغير الاحتمالات أيضًا.
لدى وكلاء المراهنات خوارزميات جيدة التنظيم تقوم باستمرار بقياس احتمالية حدوث أشياء معينة في مباراة رياضية بناءً على أحدث البيانات. إذا ظهر شيء جديد، يُسمح لوكلاء المراهنات الرياضية بتغيير الاحتمالات فقط لتقليل مخاطر خسارة المال.
أنواع الاحتمالات
بمجرد أن تعرف الغرض الكامل من الرهان على الاحتمالات وكيفية عملها، فقد حان الوقت لمعرفة المزيد عن الأنواع الفردية المختلفة. الطريقة الوحيدة لمعرفة كيفية حساب الاحتمالات هي معرفة كيفية عمل التنسيقات الفردية المختلفة.
الاحتمالات العشرية
تحظى الاحتمالات العشرية بشعبية كبيرة في أوروبا، والنظام الكامن وراء هذا الحساب واضح جدًا. الاحتمالات العشرية هي أرقام تستخدمها لحساب أرباحك المحتملة عن طريق ضرب رهانك في الاحتمالات.
الصيغة: الرهان × الاحتمالات = المكاسب المحتملة
العملية أيضًا بسيطة جدًا لتكديس رهانات متعددة على تذكرة واحدة. كل ما عليك فعله هو مضاعفة الاحتمالات من كل رهان تضيفه إلى التذكرة. على سبيل المثال، إذا وضعت 2.00 تطابق فردي، و1.5 تطابق فردي على نفس التذكرة، فسيكون إجمالي الاحتمالات 2 × 1.5 = 3.00
تصبح العملية أكثر صعوبة عندما تضيف المزيد من التطابقات نظرًا لأن الاحتمالات ترتفع وربما تحتاج إلى آلة حاسبة للمراهنة لحساب إجمالي احتمالات الرهان. في حال كنت في حاجة إليها، يمكنك استخدام TwinSpires واحد: https://edge.twinspires.com/ betrahen.com/ar -odds-calculator/
خط المال
الرهانات الأمريكية أو رهانات Moneyline هي الشكل الفردي الأكثر شيوعًا في كرة القدم الأمريكية. تدور هذه الاحتمالات حول الرقم 100، ولا يمكن أن تكون أقل من ذلك. أهم شيء يجب أن تفهمه هو أنها يمكن أن تكون إيجابية أو سلبية.
على سبيل المثال، إذا قمت بوضع 200 دولار في مباراة فردية + 300، فسوف ينتهي بك الأمر بالفوز بمبلغ 600 دولار. في الأساس، احتمالات +300 تعني أنك ستحصل على 300 دولار مقابل كل 100 دولار تراهن بها.
صيغة خط المال الإيجابي:
الرهان الأولي × (احتمالات/100) = المكاسب المحتملة
الوضع مختلف قليلاً مع احتمالات Moneyline السلبية:
صيغة Moneyline السلبي:
(100 / احتمالات) × الرهان الأولي = المكاسب المحتملة
الصعاب الكسرية
توجد احتمالات كسرية بشكل شائع في مكاتب المراهنات البريطانية والأيرلندية، وهي صعبة الفهم بعض الشيء، خاصة بالنسبة للمبتدئين.
عندما ترى رقمين مفصولين بشرطة مائلة، فهذا يشير إلى احتمالات كسرية.
تساعدك الاحتمالات الكسرية على تحديد مقدار الأموال التي ستربحها على رهانك مقارنة برهانك. يشير الرقم الأيسر إلى مقدار الأموال التي ستكسبها، والرقم الصحيح هو المبلغ الذي تحتاج إلى الرهان به.
كل ما عليك فعله هو تقسيم الرقمين وضربهما في حصتك.
هذه هي أبسط طريقة لحساب أرباحك من الرهانات الكسرية.

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